Category: Investing

The Chancellor’s Autumn Budget 2017

The Rt Hon Philip Hammond MP

Following a turbulent few months across The Palace of Westminster, with a call for more spending and a more aggressive approach to growing the economy, the Chancellor’s budget was largely seen as a business as usual approach, albeit within the ever-present shadow of Brexit.

So now that Philip Hammond has had his day in Parliament, let’s see what kind of impact it’s going to have on yours.

Well firstly, there were no significant announcements regarding tax or pension changes. Nor was there anything that set the markets alight, or sent them into free-fall. In fact this market apathy was manifested in the non-movement of the FTSE 100, Benchmark 10 year Government bond or guilt and with the pound largely static during the Chancellors hour-long delivery.

What the Budget might mean for you

INCOME TAX

Your personal income tax allowance is set to rise to £11,850 for the fiscal year 2018-19 throughout the UK apart from Scotland. As Scotland will set its own personal tax threshold, should it choose to, in the Scottish budget due on 14 December.

The higher rate of income tax in the UK will rise to £46,350 for the fiscal year of 2018-19. Again with the exception of Scotland, who may address this in their impending budget.

STAMP DUTY

First time buys will not have to pay Stamp Duty on properties up to a value of £300,000, which would also see those buying properties up to £500,000 paying no stamp duty on the first £300,000. A move that should benefit 95% of first time buyers

PENSIONS

The pensions lifetime allowance will rise in line with the consumer price index to £1.03Million. One highlight for pensions is that there will be no changes in the pensions funding limits, with the annual allowance remaining at £40,000 and not tapered until adjusted income exceeds £150,000.

ISA’s

The Junior ISA limit is set to rise to £4,260. Whilst the overall ISA limit will stay at £20,000 of which £4,000 can be paid into a LISA (for those eligible).

CAPITAL GAINS TAX

There will be a £400 increase in the capital gains tax allowance, seeing the threshold rise to £11,700.

INHERITANCE TAX

The nil band rate for inheritance tax will remain at £325,000 until April 2021, with the residence nil rate band increasing from £100,000 to £125,000. Which means that, in the future, couples can leave assets up to £900,000 to future generations free of inheritance tax liability.

TRUST

Although no specific details were announced, there is a planned consultation, to be published in 2018, which will consider the simplification and fairness of trust taxation.

STOCKS

The UK Stock Market was largely indifferent to the Chancellors speech. In fact, when he stood up to speak the FTSE100 was trading at 7,448 and when he sat down an hour later, it was largely unchanged.

The real movement in the market came about through the changes in Stamp Duty. With large house builders witnessing their shares drop between 1% and 3%. Possibly reflecting some disappointment in the detail of the chancellors £44 Billion Housing Package, along with the lack of an extension to the popular Help to Buy scheme, compounded with an investigation into the speed at which permitted land banks see the building of new homes taking place.

In true Stock Market traditions, where the tide goes out for one group, in it comes for another.
With the increase in the Stamp Duty it is widely believed that we will see a reinvigoration of the housing market, as well as the driving up of house prices. All this leads to higher profits for Estate Agents and, as a consequence of that, national chains saw an increase in the value of their share price.

CURRENCY MARKETS

The downgrade in the UK’s GDP growth forecast for the next three to four years, along with the rest of the budget, went through without any real reaction from the currency markets. With Sterling ending the budget in much the same place as it started against the Euro and Dollar.

2017 BUDGET SUMMARY

All in all, the Chancellor delivered a steady budget, without any radical changes to the landscape. As always, if you have any questions regarding a specific area of the budget, or your own personal circumstances, then please don’t hesitate to get in touch, where we will be happy to help you in any way.

The Rate Rise is here – but what does it mean?

Well we all new it was coming, but what now? What does the first interest rate rise for more than a decade mean for you?

Despite the fact that it’s a small increase from 0.25% to 0.5% it will have an immediate impact on UK households and businesses. On one hand it means higher costs for those with mortgages and other borrowings but on the other it’s better news for all those with savings.

Is it misery for Mortgages?

Mortgage rates will inevitably rise following the increase in base rate. The main group affected in the short term are those on a standard variable rate (currently average 4.6%), along with those who are on tracker mortgages, where rates are likely to raise this side of Christmas.
Although the scale of the rise is unlikely to push many people into hardship, as a 0.25% rise on a 25 year mortgage of £200,000 at a standard variable rate of 4.5 per cent means an extra payment of about £300 a year.

Is a Fixed-rate fantastic?

With The Bank of England announcing that further rate rises can be expected, brokers are anticipating a rush on fixed-rate deals of five years and over. Although over the last few months there have been a lot of fixed-rate product withdrawals and rate increases, as the banks anticipate the rush to a fixed-rate product.

Is it the right time to Remortgage?

Anyone looking to remortgage or move to a fixed rate can still access the historically low rates available in the market, with two year fixed-rate deals available at 1.09% or fixed for five years at 1.68% for those with a 40% deposit.
It is generally thought that borrowers should be encouraged by the comment accompanying the announcement by The Bank of England “The expectation at the moment is that the speed of future increase in rates is going to be relatively slower than we thought.”

Is it super for Savers?

For those living with near non-existent returns over the last few years, it would seem like welcome news. Although that depends upon whether the banks choose to pass this increase onto their customers. A move looking increasingly unlikely, as the link between base rate and savings rate appears to have been severed sometime ago. Following the announcement, the Nationwide says the “majority” of its savers will benefit from a rise, while Newcastle Building Society and Yorkshire Building Society pledged to pass on the full rate rise to all savers. So it’s not a clear rate rise for every saver in the UK. One to watch carefully!

Is it perfect for Pensions?

With annuity rates closely linked to movements in interest rates, according to experts, the rate rise is likely to be fed through resulting in higher income for pensioners.
Richard Eagling of Moneyfacts suggests “The interest rate rise is good news for those on the verge of retirement who may be looking to secure an income through an annuity, as it is likely to boost gilt yields, which underpin annuity rates.”

Is it time up for Transfer Offers?

The rise in the interest rate is more than likely to end the record high transfer offers currently available to members of defined benefit pension schemes. Head of Royal London, Sir Steve Webb says “The one group who may be concerned by today’s news are those planning to take a transfer from a final salary pension. Transfer values are likely to track down as interest rates rise. Anyone considering a transfer may wish to take impartial advice on the pros and cons of a transfer as a matter of urgency, as transfer values are unlikely to remain at today’s very high levels.”
So if you’ve been considering your potential transfer value now is the time to look at what the opportunity might be, before the rate rise causes an end to the current offers, that can be 30 or 40 times projected pension income.

Is it interesting for Investments?

The markets have already priced in the rate rise decision, so it is predicted that there will be little impact on stock prices in the short-term. With political uncertainties like Brexit still having an affect on company’s ability to make investment decisions.

Is the Rise repeatable?

It’s because the Bank of England is forecasting inflation falling below 3%, that many believe that further rate rises in 2018 are unlikely. On-going increases risk slowing or halting an already weak economy, currently experiencing the uncertainty of Brexit. So the feeling is that this rate rise is probably going to be an isolated incident, until Brexit is behind us and the economy is more stable.

Elections and Referendums

Just when you think you’ve seen enough of elections and referendums, they’re starting to appear like busses.

Rollercoaster Elections Referendums

Here we all go again!

It seems like only yesterday that David Cameron and Ed Miliband were battling for the keys of Number 10. Then, just as we all got our breath back, we had the EU Referendum.

Hot on Brexit’s heals, we then witnessed President Trump’s march toward The White House. Right now the EU is in the midst of it’s own electoral battles and Turkey is undergoing historic changes that may well bring about fundamental alterations to it’s constitution.

So with all that literally days behind us, Teresa May has now announced a snap General Election for June 8th.

So, what does it all mean for our investments?

Not so steady as we go.

We all know that the markets love stability and that we haven’t had very much of that recently, but things were starting to settling down. Granted there is the sabre rattling regarding Brexit and the UK’s future economic relationship with Europe – but there always has been.

It can’t be good for business though. As we all know that political uncertainty leads to a volatile market. However, we need to remember that political uncertainly doesn’t last, but the markets do!

It’s fair to say that changes in the status quo often disrupt the domestic and international markets, especially if the changes are unexpected or seem to signify a departure from the established order of things. Couple that with the fact that many observers are pointing out that the political and economic landscape of Europe hasn’t changed so much since the end of the Second World War. What is happening in the UK, Europe and America is huge and no one knows exactly where it will all settle. But settle it will. And when it does the markets will adjust themselves, dust themselves down and go about their usual business.

The markets love time more than politics.

Analysts tell us to take great comfort by looking back at long-term market performance. For when we examine how the markets behave historically, the further back we go the more we see steady growth.

In saying that, it doesn’t mean that growth was more assured or stronger years ago. What it means is that if we look at the markets over years rather than months, then the robust nature of investment growth becomes apparent.

It’s by looking back in time that we can clearly see that investments generally return the best options in order to grow a lump sum of cash. This knowledge should arm us with the confidence to look to retaining our market positions in times of uncertainty.

We may not all share the same politics, but we’re all in the same boat.

We are all facing uncertainty. We are all second-guessing the results of the General Election. What that will mean to Brexit? How will the victors navigate the UK on it’s maiden voyage as an Economic power in its own right?

But take comfort in the fact that the markets are used to uncertainty and they can cope with it way better than us mere humans. Just think of the markets as a reflection of life and society. They have their ups and downs and often face periods of calm certainty as well as violent change.

Our approach is evidence-based, long-term buy and hold, concentrating on getting the right mixture of risk and return for our clients. Essentially this is a ‘steady as she goes’ approach which avoids market timing or stock selection as far as possible since these have not been shown to add value. This has generally served them well over time. Unless people’s goals have changed, we do not advocate any changes in the levels of risk taken. We have already made changes to our portfolios to remove the bias to UK equities and these are being rolled out through our regular client review process. So we are not complacent but we do base our approach on our understanding of the long term behaviour of the markets.